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Prediction for CME (2023-06-27T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-06-27T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25752/-1
CME Note: Wide but faint asymmetrical possibly partial halo CME in the NE in both coronagraphs, seen at start and end in FOV of COR2A before and after the nighttime data gap. Likely source is a slow developing dimming NE of AR 3354 (N15E13) in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 after 2023-06-27T20Z and a faintly seen filament eruption happening at the same time in AIA/EUVI A 304. Arrival signature is very weak. It is characterized by separation of magnetic field components, as well as an increase in speed and magnetic field intensity from 4 nT to 8 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-06-30T11:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-06-30T20:46Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-06-28 03:01
 - Time at C2: 2023-06-27 20:36
 - Radial speed: 520.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 39 deg
 - Eruption location: N18E26
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: C1.8 (N15E18). Peak at 2023-06-27 19:28
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 549.31 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-06-30 20:46 (i.e. predicted transit time: 72.17 hours)
Lead Time: 42.33 hour(s)
Difference: -9.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-06-28T17:00Z
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